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From: William Wilber
Affiliation:
Address: cen05515@centurytel.net
Date: 04 Sep 2000
Time: 20:56:05
I recently saw an analysis of celestial body diameter vs. frequency of impact on Earth done over 5 orders of magnitude in diameter and 8 orders of magnitude in time. It was done using a fractal (non-linear) statistical approach.
I think you could model your disasters using such a nonlinear model, perhaps Paretian or Weibull. Perhaps Weibull would be best for earthquakes, since they represent a "breakdown" statistic. Epidemics might be a percolation phenomenon.
Two books on the topic are:
"Fractals, Chaos, and Power Laws" Manfred Schroeder, ed., W. H. Freeman, 1991
"Complexity: Metaphors, Models, and Reality", G. A. Cowan et al, ed., Perseus Books, 1994
Now there are many.
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