Welcome to the Contingency Analysis family of websites, a comprehensive resource for trading, financial engineering and financial risk management. Here you will find a glossary linked to detailed articles, an active discussion forum, book reviews, research and much more.

The family of websites was launched by Glyn Holton in 1996. Glyn is a consultant and author. His websites have become a preeminent on-line resource for practitioners in the capital, commodity and energy markets.

      Family of Websites

riskglossary.com
A comprehensive glossary, encyclopedia, and resource locator.

riskchat.com
An active forum for traders, financial engineers, and risk managers.

riskbook.com
Independent book reviews and book comparisons.

risklearning.com
Professional training in financial math and related topics.

GlynHolton.com
A blog about financial risk.

value-at-risk.net
Exercise solutions and more for Glyn Holton's book on value-at-risk.

isuffrage.org
The Investor Suffrage Movement is a grassroots initiative.

about
Contact and other information for Glyn Holton and the family of websites.

     Research

Investor suffrage movement

A proposed "proxy exchange" will allow shareholders to transfer voting rights among themselves. Corporate governance will never be the same.

Defining risk

Everyone talks about risk, but no one seems to want to define it. What is going on?

Negatively skewed
trading strategies

By adopting a negatively skewed trading strategy, a trader or hedge fund can create the appearance of market out-
performance. Here is what to look out for.

 

See all research ...

      Services

Consulting
Consulting in trading and financial risk management.

Training
Professional training in financial math and related topics.

Promotion
You can advertise on riskchat.com, riskglossary.com  and riskbook.com.

        Forum—Archive Highlights

Journal of Risk Shutting Down? 28 Mar 2006
Are there any quality journals for financial risk management?

Duration of CDS 05 Dec 2005
Does a credit default swap have a duration?

Risk management certification 08 Jul 2005
Controversy following the GARP scandal.

Credit Default Swap Portfolio 19 Apr 2004
How do you assess risk for a "mystery" CDS portfolio?

VaR for a large option portfolio 06 Feb 2004
Realities of implementing a production value-at-risk measure.

Negative rates and risk management 02 Sep 2003
Modeling issues posed by negative interest rates.

Trading the skew 16 May 2001
Dangers of shorting out of the money options.

Stop Loss 05 Oct 2000
Should value-at-risk be modified to reflect stop-loss orders on a portfolio's holdings?

Internal Audit vs. Risk Management 30 Apr 1997
Financial risk management vs. internal audit.

Do former traders make good risk managers? 4 Jan 1997
Former traders as financial risk managers.

See all archive highlights ...
See current discussions ...

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Sponsored Links

Financial Notation Project

The Financial Notation Project is an initiative to standardize financial notation. All authors are encouraged to adopt its simple conventions.

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Financial Math Training

Corporate training in financial mathematics. Three short courses take professionals from pre-calculus to stochastic calculus—with plenty of applications.

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Client Projects

Select Energy

A pumped storage facility is a man made pond. Water is pumped into the pond when electricity is cheep. It is released into generators when prices are high. The profitability of the facility depends on the volatility of hourly electricity prices. When Select Energy wanted to acquire a pumped storage facility, their bankers were concerned. The New England power market was just being deregulated. Volatility was high, but might it decline as the market matured? Select Energy turned to Glyn Holton to prepare a technical study of how volatility developed in other markets that emerged during the 20th century. The banks were convinced, and Select Energy received its funding.

Accenture

Formerly known as Andersen Consulting, Accenture is a technology consulting firm with a focus on delivering business solutions. Accenture's London office was performing a lot of work for financial firms in the UK and on the continent. Their consultants needed to understand financial risk management, and especially value-at-risk (VaR). Accenture brought Glyn Holton in to run a one-day training program. Downplaying technical mathematics, the program focused on providing an intuitive understanding of VaR and how it is used in trading. Attendees enjoyed the program so much that they invited Mr. Holton back to speak at one of their employee conferences.

Olam International

Olam International is a Singapore based commodities trading firm. They were using an internally developed financial risk management system to monitor market risk and economic capital. The firm was expanding and starting to trade options. They wanted to have an expert review the value-at-risk (VaR) component of their system and recommend improvements. As an authority on VaR with prior experience in commodities markets, Glyn Holton was perfect for the job. He met with staff for four days, made specific recommendations, and helped implement a demo VaR measure. He wrote a technical memo detailing for Olam staff how to incorporate the upgrades into their system.

See more client projects...

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